Story · July 27, 2017

Russia Sanctions Slip Out of Trump’s Hands

Russia boxed in Confidence 5/5
★★★★☆Fuckup rating 4/5
Serious fuckup Ranked from 1 to 5 stars based on the scale of the screwup and fallout.

Congress on July 27, 2017, moved to wrest the Russia sanctions file away from Donald Trump, setting up a showdown that made the president’s preferred flexibility look increasingly theoretical. The House had already approved the measure by an overwhelming vote, and the Senate was pushing it forward with enough bipartisan momentum to make a veto appear less like a governing tool than a delaying tactic. That left Trump with a narrow set of choices, none of them especially comfortable. He could sign the bill and accept a law that sharply curtailed his ability to ease pressure on Moscow, or he could veto it and risk being publicly overruled by the same lawmakers who had just shown how united they were on the issue. Either way, the basic message was unmistakable: on Russia, the White House was no longer setting the pace. For a president who had campaigned as a master negotiator and projected himself as someone who could dominate any room, that was a deeply awkward place to land.

The sanctions package was not simply a routine expression of congressional irritation. It reflected months of accumulated anger in both parties over Russia’s interference in the 2016 election, its aggression in Ukraine, and its role in Syria, all of which had hardened a rare bipartisan consensus in an otherwise polarized capital. Lawmakers were also reacting to something more political and more personal: distrust of Trump’s instincts toward Vladimir Putin’s government. Some members worried that he was too eager to soften sanctions or strike some arrangement that would undercut pressure on the Kremlin; others were concerned that his approach was too unpredictable to leave to the normal discretion that presidents usually enjoy in foreign policy. The legislation addressed those fears directly by limiting the president’s power to lift sanctions without congressional involvement. That effectively turned what had traditionally been an executive-branch tool into an area of legislative supervision. Many lawmakers plainly wanted to ensure that any future effort to relax penalties on Russia would have to pass through Congress first. The result was not just tougher policy, but a built-in suspicion of the man in the Oval Office.

The White House complained that the measure would hamstring the president’s ability to negotiate with Moscow, but by that point the administration had little public leverage left. That argument, in fact, may have reinforced the reason Congress was moving so aggressively. If the president’s own team was warning that the bill would constrain his ability to deal with Russia, then lawmakers could reasonably conclude that the constraint was the point. On Capitol Hill, the debate had become bigger than sanctions as a policy instrument. It had become a test of whether the executive branch should be allowed wide latitude on an issue so politically charged, so morally loaded, and so closely tied to the 2016 election that many members viewed it as a national-security problem as much as a diplomatic one. Trump’s problem was not simply that he disliked the bill. Presidents oppose bills all the time, and Congress passes legislation they do not like all the time. The deeper problem was that his own posture toward Russia had become so controversial that lawmakers felt justified in stepping in with unusual force. That gave the political optics an especially ugly shape. Instead of looking like a commander-in-chief who had persuaded Congress to support a tough and disciplined foreign policy, Trump looked like a president being boxed in by an institution he often mocked and treated as an obstacle to his will.

That image mattered because the fight over sanctions was really also a fight over trust. Congress was not just punishing Russia for what it had done abroad, though that was certainly part of it. It was also trying to prevent Trump from turning his own preferences into policy without meaningful oversight. That distinction was critical because it showed how far the relationship between Congress and the president had shifted on the Russia question. Lawmakers were essentially writing their skepticism into law. They were not waiting to see whether Trump would use the sanctions authority responsibly; they were acting on the assumption that he should not be given that freedom without guardrails. Allies overseas could read the episode as evidence of a U.S. government in which the legislature was openly suspicious of its own leader’s Russia approach. Adversaries could read it as a sign that the president’s preferred line was being fenced off by statute. Domestically, critics suddenly had a powerful argument that Trump’s instincts were too suspect to be left unconstrained. For the president, that was a bruising political and symbolic defeat. The sanctions fight suggested he could not command the Russia file with the authority he wanted, nor could he easily persuade Congress that he deserved that authority. By the time the bill reached his desk, the essential verdict had already been delivered. Congress was not waiting to see what Trump would do with Russia policy, because it had decided he should not be left alone with it.

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