Story · May 14, 2021

Republicans still can’t decide how much Trump they can afford

Party stuck on Trump Confidence 4/5
★★★☆☆Fuckup rating 3/5
Major mess Ranked from 1 to 5 stars based on the scale of the screwup and fallout.
Correction: A previous version misstated or overstated some details about the House Republican leadership vote. Liz Cheney was removed as conference chair on May 12, 2021, and Elise Stefanik was elected to replace her on May 14, 2021.

On May 14, 2021, Republicans were still trapped in a problem they had not solved: Donald Trump remained useful to the party, but he also kept setting its limits. He could still draw attention, drive turnout among the most loyal voters, and shape the terms of Republican politics. He also kept pulling the party back toward the same fights over the 2020 election, personal loyalty, and his own grievances.

That tension was visible in the House Republican leadership fight that week, when Republicans moved against Liz Cheney after months of intraparty pressure over her criticism of Trump. The vote was not just about one member’s standing. It showed how much influence Trump still held over the party’s internal discipline and how costly it could be for Republicans to break with him in public. Even lawmakers who wanted to look beyond Trump had to do so carefully, because the former president still had leverage with donors, primary voters, and much of the GOP base.

The result was a party trying to talk about the future while still orbiting the former president. Republicans could see the upside of his continued popularity with their voters. They could also see the downside: a politics built around grievance, false claims about the 2020 election, and a constant loyalty test that left little room for a broader message. Those pressures did not disappear because Trump left office. If anything, they became easier to see once he was out of the White House and still able to command the party’s attention.

That left Republicans with a familiar choice and no clean answer. They could stay close to Trump and keep the base engaged, or they could try to move on and risk a backlash from the voters he still influenced most. By mid-May 2021, many GOP leaders seemed to understand that both options carried real costs. What they did not have was a way to make those costs go away. The party was still trying to act as if it had a strategy for the Trump era. In practice, it mostly had a set of evasions.

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