Story · May 17, 2022

Pennsylvania Primary Tests Trump’s Kingmaker Claim

Kingmaker test Confidence 5/5
★★★☆☆Fuckup rating 3/5
Major mess Ranked from 1 to 5 stars based on the scale of the screwup and fallout.
Correction: On election night, the Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary was still too close to call and was later decided after additional counting and recount procedures.

Donald Trump likes to sell himself as a political kingmaker. Pennsylvania’s May 17 primary showed he still has leverage, but not the neat, one-call kind that turns endorsements into instant coronations.

The clearest win came in the governor’s race, where Trump-backed state Sen. Doug Mastriano secured the Republican nomination. Mastriano had the kind of profile that thrives in a hard-fought primary: deep distrust of the political establishment, loud loyalty to Trump, and a campaign built around the issues that animate the party’s most intense voters. That was enough to get him through the field. It also gave Democrats an easy general-election target in a state that usually punishes candidates who run too far to the right.

The Senate race was messier. Trump-endorsed Mehmet Oz was still locked in a razor-thin fight with David McCormick as the ballots were counted on primary night, and the result was not yet settled. That alone undercut the clean kingmaker story. An endorsement can help, especially in a crowded race where voters want a signal. It does not guarantee a fast or tidy finish. In Pennsylvania, Trump’s backing mattered, but it did not erase Oz’s weak ties to the state or the doubts many Republicans had about him as a nominee.

That split screen is the real lesson from the primary. Trump can still push candidates over the top, and he can still shape who the party rewards. But the candidates he boosts often bring their own baggage: Oz had to overcome questions about authenticity and local roots, while Mastriano brought the sort of baggage that energizes primary voters and alarms everyone else. The endorsements showed reach. They also showed the price of that reach.

For Republicans, Pennsylvania was a reminder that winning a primary under Trump’s banner is not the same thing as building a durable statewide coalition. In one race, his pick won. In the other, his pick was still fighting to finish the count. Either way, the state exposed the gap between influence and control.

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