Story · January 2, 2024

The Supreme Court is about to judge Trump’s election fate

High court hazard Confidence 4/5
★★★★☆Fuckup rating 4/5
Serious fuckup Ranked from 1 to 5 stars based on the scale of the screwup and fallout.
Correction: Trump’s Supreme Court petition was filed on January 3, 2024, and docketed on January 4, 2024.

The deeper screwup was not just the ballot battle itself, but what it signaled about Trump’s political reality heading into 2024: the Supreme Court was about to hear arguments over whether his conduct around January 6 put him outside the constitutional bounds of office-seeking. On January 2, the court’s public docket already reflected the case, making clear that Trump’s path to the nomination could become inseparable from a ruling on whether he was disqualified from the ballot in the first place. That is a grim setup for any candidate, and especially for one who wants the year defined by his strength, not by judicial scrutiny of his eligibility. It also handed his critics a brutally useful contrast: while Trump sold himself as the only candidate strong enough to govern, the courts were still reviewing whether he had attacked the very system that would let him run. The consequence was not theoretical. Every headline about the case reinforced the same problem for him: the campaign was forced to spend precious oxygen on legal self-defense instead of message discipline, coalition-building, or turnout work. In a normal campaign, January is for endorsements and field operations; for Trump, it was for constitutional triage.

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